Forex trading strategy #16 (Simple breakout System)

Just wondering if anyone could comment on the winning percentage of this system. By system I mean the simplest one as described at the top of this page. Winning 20 losing 20 just based on the candles outside the 1 hour range.

thanks,

Bob

Hi Edward,
I would like to elaborate on wide channels problem.
Commented on September 26, 2007 - 04:26 by user... No name there :)

From my understanding a wide channel means that the market didn't calm down before the Frankfurt and later London open while we would like it to squeeze in as much as possible to produce a strong breakout, right?

I've tried using BB (12, 2) to measure bands with against 1 am channel width. If bands are thiner than a 1 hour channel - that's a sign that a market has squeezed the way we want, thus I would trade a breakout as you've suggested.

If it is wider - I would use reverse strategy offered in a post by User on September 26, 2007 - 04:26.
I set another BB (12, 3) and once a full bar closed outside the 1h channel and it is still inside the BB (12, 3) I enter a trade towards the channel. S/L below BB (12, 3).

Good luck trading!
Diego

Hi Edward,

I find this to be a very profitable strategy. 20 pips profit is almost always met. I've tried 9 times and only 1 time the trade went in opposite direction. Thanks for the tip!

Fitri.

Edward - Still confused about effect of News which could cause price to go either way. I am in California so my trade zone is 10 PM to 11 PM PST. There snould not be any big news items during that period , Right ???

George

Yes, if PST is EST - 3 then it should be 10pm to 11 pm PST.
There are usually no news during the time we set our orders. First news come at 4:00am - 4:30am EST for GBP; for JPY and EUR we may see news as early as 2:00am EST, but those usually aren't that important.

As we speak about the news, there is actually one more thing you can do before deciding on a particular trade. In economic calendar note news schedules for the currencies you trade. Analyze Previous and Forecast numbers to get preliminary direction bias. If a breakout happen in the direction you had expected, this would add additional confidence to trading that breakout.

Regards,
Edward

Edward -

I have a demo. account with Oanda and use their charts and platform. However when I try to use deviation 1.5 . the Boll. comes up with 2.0 ! Will 2.0 be ok to use or , should I just pass on Boll. Bands and use the original rules ?

Thanks for your help !

George

Hi George,

Hm, I did use 1.5 for BB on Oanda successfully, but now it doesn't seem to work anymore. As you said it converts it back to 2.

Try using this new value, the difference shouldn't be significant. This BB rule was a new addition, originally I used strategy without Bollinger Bands.

Regards,
Edward

Hi Edward - I am new here and really appreciate your advice. I plan on using # 16 Simple Breakout starting at 10 PM with the first

possible

trade at 11;05 PST. Then I may also use Chelo's Bollinger Bands 1 minute Scalping when the London market opens at 12 midnight to the

closing of the Tokyo session at 1 AM Pacific Standard Time ( PST ) .Are these times correct ?? I get the differrnt time zones confused

sometimes when converting GMT to EST to PST.

Also , can I use either , or both of these two methods during ANY of the daylight hours , PST ? THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR IDEAS AND

SUGGESTIONS ! I have learned more on this web site than any other . Your patience and generosity are greatly appreciated .

Best Regards ,
George