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Developing a system #7 (Simple trading any time)

Submitted by trader.

I have been trading a fairly simple strategy which is the result of my frustration with indicators, progressive systems and marginally profitable ideas that turn negative due to dealer spreads.

My general "dilemma" in forex is that most strategies work well in either trending or ranging markets but not the opposite. Also, I do not have the patience and stamina to sit and stare at the screen all day, so I was looking for a strategy that I can enter at any time and that has pre-defined exit points for either profit or loss, so I can enter into a trade and walk away.

Here is my idea: The market rarely moves in a straight line. Most trends show pulllbacks and ranging markets are nothing but a constant back and forth. To me this means that there is profit in betting on a small move in either direction. If a stop is set at twice the distance from the current price as the limit, the limit is twice as likely to be hit as the stop is. This is mathematical theory only and would result in a "balanced" result since we win 2 small amounts and lose one big one.

However, in Forex I have found that small pullbacks happen not twice as often as a "big moves" but up to three times. Therefore my simple strategy looks like this: I buy or sell a currency and set stop loss at twice the distance as my limit. This in itself has generated 1311 positive and 599 negative trades over the last month for me. I entered completely randomly without regard for trend or currency movement. I traded with a 3 pip spread which I ignored in my limit and stop (meaning I started with a disadvantage). My net gain therefore is (1311- 599*2) 112 times the limit. I set my limits at 10, loss at 20, so I earned 1120 pips. It is important to use currencies with a low spread.

I am sure the strategy would be even better if we didn't enter randomly (coin flip) but with an existing trend to increase our chances of the limit being hit instead of the stop.

Any thoughts, tests or opinions would be highly appreciated. I like trading this way because my losses are limited, I needn't worry about sticking around the computer all day but can just set new positions whenever I have a second, and the rest just works by itself. Give it a try!



http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/


i like your thinking but sorry to say that if you do that on real account you will be an easy prey for brokers. thank you

easy prey as in "stop loss hunting" or how would they "get to" me?

I hope a more detail elaboration on this technique. I am quite interested in it. But i barely understand what are u trying to get to.

Where do you set the limit from current price? and etc. Thanks and good luck

Example: EurUSd is at 1.28. I buy in, set a limit at 1.2810 and a stop loss at 1.2780. Just make the stop significantly larger than the limit. Here it is twice as large, you could also make it 3 times or more. with my "double the loss compared to limit" I need to win 2 out of 3 trades (66.6%). So far I have had about 70% winners which means I am in profit.

they will hunt your stops easily

A trouble of possible stop hunting can be avoided if to opt for an ECN/STP Forex broker.

The results of the "coin flip" strategy is quite interesting. The main reason it works, in my opinion, is because profit targets are small and easy to accomplish.
And I still believe that the author uses some sort of own perception of which way it's better to enter.

Here is simple idea I would add.
As I see it, with a small profit target we simply need to enter when the trend is on, not when it is changing, e.g. we want to run on the continuation of a trend, not to pick tops and bottoms.

If to go without any indicators, we can simply try changing regular candlesticks to heikin-ashi candlesticks. We would be interested to Buy after a close of a bullish candle that has no lower wick, and sell after a close of a bearish candle that has no upper wick.

Regards,
Edward

1 suggestion to increase the odds of limit being hit instead of stop is to add MACD HISTOGRAM WITH SETTINGS 2 , 4 , 20 ON A 5 MIN CHART OF EUR/JPY AND IF MACD IS ABOVE 0 GO ONLY FOR BUY TRADES, AND IF MACD BELOW 0, JUST GO FOR SELL TRADES ONLY. THAT WAY U CAN MAKE THE CHANCES OF YOUR LIMIT BEING HIT IS MUCH MUCH HIGHER THAN BEING STOPPED.

CHECK IT OUT AND YOU WILL SEE WHAT I MEAN, HOPE THAT HELPS, I REALY LIKE THIS WEB SITE , IT MAKES US UNITE OUR EFFORTS TO SUCCEED ALL IN OUR TRADING.HAPPY TRADING ALL.....

DR.FAWWAZ

Have you traded this live yet?

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