Advanced system #14 (Simple trading with Daily range)

Steve

Unhappy day for sure. Just a suggestion -- which is also Stuart's idea I think. I believe you will have had this hard day by following the COG direction. You will (probably) do better, I have, if you just take the first entry 25% away from the close whether long or short. (then cancel the entry for the other side!)

Many pairs did not go in the COG direction, so I understand how it was easy to lose, BUT it was a much more successful day for those who just took the first available entry and otherwise followed the rules.

I must admit my one exception is to generally let my SL run up to 100 pips from entry. Bad reward to risk, I know, but . . . Sometimes, often in fact, Stuart's 10 pips back SL will be tighter than this. It amazes me how often it takes all or most of 100 to stay in the game and go on the hit TP.

Anyway, you might want to demo trade this way for a few days to get comfortable (hopefully).

Good fortune to you, David

HELLO EVERY ONE,

TODAY FRIDAY WAS MY BAD DAY, I LOST MORE THAN 300 DOLLARS FROM MY ACCOUNT.

CURRENCIES

USDCHF:-67
EURUSD:-39
GBPCHF:-106
EURCHF;-102

PLEASE DOES ANY ONE HAVE A BETTER WAY TO USE THIS STRATEGY AND WHAT IS THE BEST CURRENCY.I USED THE UPDATED SPREAD SHEET FOR THESE ORDERS.
PLEASE HELP ME I LIKE THIS STRATEGY BUT THE DAY ONE WILL LOSS IT WILL BE TOO MUCH.

THANKS
STEVE

hello staurt,

God will bless you for sharing this powerfull system, i have started using it on my live account and so good so far, the system is delivering.
but my EURUSD on thursday hit stoploss, and later retraces, pls could you do more work on the stoploss, what if one does not use the stoploss?

secondly, how does the pivot point in your spread sheet affect the orders placed?
Thank you
Steve
Abuja-Nigeria
08065424453

Some thoughts from my experience relating to recent posts:

Trailing stops are . . . HIT. Might be better to accept some modified profit target prior to waiting for a trailing stop to be hit.

I am finding that being willing to trade each day on either side . . . whichever is hit first -- yields best results. I have also often seen a divergence between COG and the one or three hour trend. Why guess, take your first entry. I think this is what Stuart is saying, too. [please correct me if wrong!]

Then, what to do when a pair seems to be topping (at R) or bottoming (at S). Will it turn around soon or continue to drift with the established trend?

The first entry at 25% above/below close solves this (usually), then I CANCEL the order going the other way. Took much risk for me. I don't want to (occasionally) hit SL on both sides as regretably happened earlier this week.

Have a great Friday trading all. I very much appreciate traveling this interesting journey with Stuart and his system with all of you. I think we should still be pretty encouraged. Decent money management and avoidance of greed, and this is a winner.

David

Hi there

At the moment, i am placing my orders before 8am GMT before the london market opens so I am running my 24hrs from then. Has anyone tried another 24hr time frame other than this?

I also think this approach is not a simple 'plug and play' type system (what is!!); take the EURUSD this morning at 8am when the COG (240 bars)was showing a strong LONG bias but if you actually drew trend lines it was evident that the pair was channelling in a SHORT bias. Where you have this conflict of COG v trend, it is worth waiting for the pair to establish itself for the day - this pair did poke its head up but is now firmly heading downwards in line with the trend on the hrly chart. I have found that the drawing of trend lines in conjunction with using the COG is a good way of re-confirming trend and highlights anomalies in pairs that should either be avoided or put to one side for a later viewing. It also forces you to look at price action rather than just blindly following the COG indicator.

The drawing of channel trend lines (if it is possible) also gives you some idea of the likelihood of your order being hit. Would you cancel an order for example that wasnt going to be hit within the 24 hr period when it is clear from price action within the channel that it would be hit in the next 24hr period, assuming of course the trend is in tact and the COG is still giving the appropriate confirmation?

Scott

Hi Diana,
hust reading your comments regarding probability. Surely indicators like the COG are there to show the probability of the price going in a particular direction, hence trade long when it points up and short when it points down. Again, I think we can become a bit bogged down with trying more and more things to try and enhance an already very good basic system. Stuart, regarding using the spreadsheet, you say "just enter ADR and CLOSE, then copy and paste all others". I'm not sure what you mean as I fill all the fields in individually for all currency pairs and it takes forever. Any help please. Finally, regarding brokers, I don't know how many of you live in the UK but if you do then you could use a spread betting company for your trades such as IG Index and take all profits Tax Free.thanks
Andy

Hi all,
I've been following along this thread for a few days now. Since the main aim of this strategy seems to be to end up in positive territory in terms of pips rather than currency I thought the following spreadsheet might be of interest to some people.
UNITS_CALCULATION.xls

Since I'm from Australia, I wanted to calculate the number of units (I use OANDA) of each pair I'd need to buy or sell such that I earn AU$2 per pip. So if my net profit or loss in terms of pips at the end of the day was +100, I would have AU$200 in the pocket. Am I making sense?

THerefore I put "AUD" in cell B1 and $2 in cell B2 then press the "Download Prices" button. The spreadsheet then downloads the required currency conversions from yahoo finance and puts the number of units required in column C. You'll need to enable macros for it to work... I haven't tested it for currencies other than AUD however I'm pretty sure it'll work. JPY currencies seem a little lagged as well but its close enough for what we need it to do.

I'm relatively new to FX trading so I hope I'm not putting something out there that's old news to people. If so, my apologies for the long winded thread. Please let me know if its useful or if there's bugs I need to fix.

Matt

Hi Stuart

Are you back to setting both buy and sell stops, or are you trading in one direction? If trading in one direction what time frame are you using for COG? Also,any time i have tried using trailing stops, it has just served to eliminate profits as the trade gets whipsawed out.

Marie

Hi Stuart

Just downloading the new spreadsheet - you are a star! I agree with you about keeping the simple ingredients. I had a small insight how to deal with probability: so I am testing putting both long and short orders as per the system and then increasing the lot size according to my assessment of the probability of the trade being a trend continue, break or reversal. Hopefully this will increase the potential value of the pips rather than altering the risk:reward ratio. Not sure it would have coped with yesterday's spikes.

The trailing stop is a good idea but how can this be set up to auto trade in metatrader - have never seen any way of entering auto stops (or OCO orders for that matter) so maybe have to trade with a broker that offers both possibilities? Don't think any of my present accounts have trailing stop loss so may have to open yet another account!

Diana

Stuart,
I've had a look at your strategy and I've also downloaded the spreadsheet to do a bit of backtesting. I notice that when I fill in the spreadsheet for the GBP/USD (the first one I tried)it gives entry and exit points but places stop loss values of 100 pips. I thought your system was based on stop losses of 10 pips or am I misunderstanding something basic here?
cheers
Andy

Hi all,
and thanks Stuart for posting a very interesting strategy. I'm no expert but, having read all the comments, I keep coming back to the idea that the very first of Stuart's methods for testing this strategy seems to be as good as any, because it seems to be producing regular, fair profits without being too cumbersome to use. All of the "tweaks" that people are creating to help improve the performance seem to be producing negligible improvement and I'm wondering whether it might be a good exercise if someone could go with a single strategy for a couple of weeks and give us their findings, good or bad, to see how the thing works "long term". The problem is, of course, that any single day can produce remarkable results and give the sometimes misleading impression that the latest version of the system has ironed out a lot of the previous problems, only for the next day's results using the latest version to be poor. Nobody wins all of the time but if you win most of the time you're onto a winner and I think Stuart has found a potential winner. Does anybody agree with this viewpoint or am I talking rubbish. If so, please say and I really won't be offended as all I am trying to do is find a good, solid strategy without expecting it to win all the time. I'll get off my soapbox now.
Thanks
Andy

Hi Stuart,

I entered both type of orders in live account with on all 10 pairs using 1:1.5. Currently see a loss of -300(2 positions closed, 10 positions open, 8 orders pending). Do you think it is normal?

Thx.
Tom

Stuart

Do you 'stay up' and follow the action on your positions or 'set and forget' and get some rest? If one is watching you can manually elect to take profits prior to the end of the day . . . that would be tempting sometimes.

Just wondering how you handle it. Late hours take their toll on those who get up and go the next morning . . . like me.

Many thanks, David

Thanks for the link Stuart - clearer than the one I was using so maybe I will understand a little more. Get back to you when have had time to test.

Diana

P.S. do you have any automatic way of entering orders - I know that there are EAs written for metatrader but never used them?

Hi all,

Thank you for the fine comments. ;-)

As I mentioned I would test my distance at 15% away from close, and still take my 25%. I was using the 10 day average to get my movement. Orders placed at 22:00 (GMT +1). The results were as follows:

EURUSD -50
GBPJPY +67
GBPUSD +59
EURGBP +25
GBPCHF +65
USDJPY +42
USDCHF - DIDN'T TRADE DUE TO BEING FLAT
AUDUSD +29
EURCHF +38
EURJPY +48

TOTAL: +295 PIPS.

As my distance was 15% from close, less than the original 25%, meant that the risk/reward was now 1:1. SL still being 10 pips away from the "would be" opposite order. By decreasing the distance, we have decreased the risk/reward from 2:1 to 1:1. So my one loss would have been -100 pips instead of the -50?

I will test the 15% theory again tonight ... now actually (22:00 my time), and post results again.

All the best,
Stuart