Advanced system #14 (Simple trading with Daily range)

Hello all,

Scott put an idea in my head re daily average range. What if we only look to profit 25% of said daily average??? Everything stays the same except now our 25% distance from close, as well as our TP.

For example, take the EURUSD for the last 24 hours my time:
Move was 321 ... BUT the average move over the past 8 days was only 211, thus giving us a more realistic target for the following day of 53. It makes more sense to trade the average, on the safer side of things. Drastically increases your chances of your TP being met ... in theory?

I have revised my spread sheet. This one has all 10 pairs, calculates the daily average, calculates the pivot point for reference, as well as your BUY/SELL orders, TP and SL.
As before, it only requires the High, Low and Close.

The SL is set to 1:1.5 ... I have had good results with that ratio.

Thank you all for the idea we are pushing around. ;-)

REVISED_25__MOVE.xls

Kind regards,
Stuart

Please note: On the spreadsheet, it is safe to only delete numbers in the white columns (HLC), as all the others have the formula. Thanks.

Hello,

I'm not familiar with CoG indicator, I just signed up to a charting service that carries this but I was wondering if someone had a link that would help me understand it more. Also what parameters should I use.

Thank you,
Kevin

Results on EST midnight to midnight trading:

EURUSD filled, not closed yet. Currently drifting sideways at +35 pips, and this is probably it, since all active markets are already closed.
GBPJPY +102
GBPUSD +124
EURGBP no trade
GBPCHF no trade
USDJPY +79
USDCHF +114
AUDUSD +62
EURCHF no trade
EURJPY no trade

Regards,
Edward

Hi All,

Results for today, 19/03.
Period start time 18/03 21:00 GMT, period end time 19/03 21:00 GMT.

EURUSD +118
GBPJPY - 104
GBPUSD + 115
EURGBP -27
GBPCHF no trade
USDJPY +79
USDCHF +113
AUDUSD +59
EURCHF +25
EURJPY -25

Resulting in +353 pips for the day. ;-)

Kind regards to all, until tomorrow

Stuart

Hi Kevin,

You are right - only trade in one direction and in the direction of the Center of Gravity line, which you can find earlier if you page back. There is a link to download it.

However ... I am still currently setting both orders, just to monitor if the COG line is a good indicator. So far so good?

Cheers,

Stuart

Hi Scott,

With the spikes ... the daily range is then very high. I do take them into account for the next days trading, as THAT is in fact THAT pairs move? But I think I prefer your idea of taking the average move? After such a spike, often the following day our 25% orders are not met ... however, today most were triggered.

I set my period last night to 9pm GMT just to see what will happen. So far, my results,

EURUSD +118
GBPJPY -104
GBPUSD +115
USDJPY + 79
USDCHF +113
AUDUSD +59
EURJPY -25

Resulting in +355 pips for the day so far. 2 trades still open, and will check tonight by 9pm GMT to get final daily results.

I like the idea of the pivot point as a stop loss - thanks Edward. Will put it to the test tomorrow.

Regards,

Stuart

Hi Stuart

I know you have explained all of this but I just wanted to double check. You are not entering both a buy and sell order, you are just taking one side right? If so what indicator are you using to determine which order to enter.

Thanks
Kevin

Hi Scott

How did you determine the average daily range? I like that idea for these big spike days.

Thanks

Kevin

Hi Stuart

I decided to ignore the spike noted above and trade on the average daily range instead; these are my results so far today ie. my market opening at 8am GMT.

EURUSD 74 pips
AUDUSD 40 pips
USDCAD 56 pips
USDCHF 69 pips
USDJPY 50 pips

Both GBPJPY and GBPUSD are currently heading way off in the other direction so i dont hold out much hope but we will see.

Regards

Scott

Hi Stuart

I tested 30% of the move compared to your 25% and the results were not as good; it kept failing to close out the trade but came very very close.

Would be interested to hear how you are dealing with THE spike we say yesterday as a result of the fed interest rate announcement. Are you continuing as normal taking it into account or are you ignoring yesterday and taking the range from the previous day for example? For those pairs in which it occurred it has obviously skewed the range completely but that range is unlikely to repeat itself presumably - there dont appear to be signs of large corrections as yet.

Scott

Hi Scott,

Do you mean 30-35% of the move away from the close, or your target, or both?

With these percentages, one could really play around with them to get a method that suits one individually.

The foundation is there ... we just need to build on it.

Cheers,

Stuart (Antwerp, Belgium)

Hi everyone,

I took today 5 pairs on EST time zone with the start of the trading day at 00:00 EST.
Got next results:
GBP/JPY +35
GBP/USD +43
EUR/USD -45
AUD/USD +16
USD/JPY +19
(...Where Stuart got a loss, I took profit, but where I got a losing trade, Stuart made a profitable one...)

Besides regular testing, I'm considering now to try out a Pivot Point level for setting stops (Pivots are good since we can calculate them in advance). The idea is to set a stop either at PP + 15 pips away or at originally suggested by Stuart stop level, whichever is going to be less.
I'll continue my observations. Tomorrow I'll try all 10 pairs, so we can compare the results side by side.

Happy trading everyone!

Edward

Hi Stuart

Still not bad results for the day or rather the last 24hrs! I have noticed that the initial move in the wrong direction which wipes the stops out is generally restrained by the outer wall of the cog - this area could act as a useful stop. Also i have been using TRO's Dynamic Fib indicator to indicate lines of resistance of support.

I like the idea of being able to set the trades up and perhaps just glance at them during the day to minimise losses or protect profit. I might try 30-35% of the previous days move of the major pairs and see how i get on. I will post my results for you on Friday.

Cheers

SCott (London UK)

Hi Scott

Stops we are still working on ... trying to get the best option. Today I worked on a 1:1.5 ratio and it seemed safe?

My results for today, 18/3/09:

EURUSD: +41
GBPJPY: +32
GBPUSD: -57
EURGBP: +21
GBPCHF: +46
USDJPY: +21
USDCHF: +20
AUDUSD: -13
EURCHF: +14
EURJPY: -30

7/10 WIN, AND RESULTING IN +95 PIPS FOR THE DAY.

I did however today, as a test, set my orders to 50% of previous days move away from close price. Result? Not as good as predicted?

Until tomorrow,

Stuart

Stuart

Ignore previous post as I re-read the other postings; I have been checking this approach today on GBYJPY and GBPUSD and both would have been stopped out using yesterdays (18.03.09) stats even though they would have gone on to subsequently meet their targets. Both pairs started at 8am with a long candle and a second long candle which peaked above the opening of the first candle of the day but then subsequently went short; it was this second candle on both pairs that would have hit the stop so i would suggest either waiting for that second candle to actually form before entering or placing your stop at the last high of the previous day - or penultimate high if the last makes the numbers too frightening!! Either of these stops would have allowed both pairs to go on and hit their targets. The approach seems good in principle but would appreciate any feedback on the subject of stops.

Scott